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Daily Market Report – December 31, 2025

Name: Transparent Stock Valuation Data (English & German)
Creator: JVInvest
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

I. A Look at the Financial Markets at the End of 2025

Global stock markets recorded high absolute returns in 2025, with an exceptionally strong dispersion between regions, sectors, and investment themes. The MSCI World Net Total Return Index rose by 21.1 percent in US dollars in 2025.

High Valuations: The S&P 500 increased by 17.9 percent (->all data Total Return) in 2025, closing at 6845 points. Based on the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio, the S&P 500 has only been valued higher than today in 21 months or 1.2 percent of the time since 1881.

Extreme Concentration: The US now accounts for over 72 percent of the market capitalization of the broadly diversified MSCI World Index, which reflects the market development of 23 developed countries. With a nominal gross domestic product of the US of $30.6 trillion in 2025, Nvidia's current market capitalization of $4.6 trillion represents about 15% of US GDP. The market share of the five largest stocks in the S&P 500 Index, including Nvidia (6.0 percent), Apple (4.9 percent), Microsoft (4.5 percent), Alphabet (3.7 percent), and Amazon (2.6 percent), currently makes up nearly 22 percent of the S&P 500's market capitalization. The concentration of the five largest stocks is significantly higher today than during the dot-com peak in 2000.

Trade Policy: On April 2, 2025, the announcement of sharply rising tariffs ("Day of Liberation") by Donald Trump triggered a significant shock and a strong, albeit short-lived, decline in global stock markets. Rarely has Warren Buffett's famous quote been as relevant as in April 2025: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Currencies: The US dollar depreciated against the euro by -11.8 percent to 0.8514 euros per dollar. The proposal by Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at the White House, to restructure US trade, currency, and debt policy ("Mar-a-Lago Agreement") created uncertainty among international investors. A politically motivated devaluation of the dollar, similar to the Plaza Accord of 1985, could trigger capital outflows from the US dollar.

Rising Debt: The ratio of US national debt to GDP is currently over 124 percent. Noted investor Ray Dalio warns that the US is in the late phase of an extended debt cycle. In France, debt has increased by over 50 percentage points since the introduction of the euro in 1999 and now exceeds 115 percent of GDP – the strongest increase within the Eurozone. High levels of debt could lead to rising term premiums in the bond markets.

II. Sector Trends 2025

1. Artificial Intelligence & Semiconductors

The investment wave in AI was the dominant driver of returns for the year. Major beneficiaries included well-known US companies such as Alphabet (+65.4 percent), Nvidia (+38.9 percent), Palantir (+135.0 percent), and Micron Technology (+240.2 percent), as well as large companies from emerging markets like Samsung Electronics (+129.2 percent) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (+46.1 percent).

The so-called hyperscalers like Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), and Alphabet (Google Cloud) announced very high investments. This particularly benefits operators of data centers, chip and network equipment manufacturers, and energy suppliers. Analysts expect that the investments of the hyperscalers could exceed $600 billion in 2026.

2. Precious Metals and Mining Stocks

The gold spot price rose by 64.6 percent in US dollars in 2025, closing at $4319 per ounce (31.1 grams). Gold benefited from high purchases by central banks and a flight to safety by investors in gold amid escalating debt policies in several countries.

Mining stocks like Barrick Mining (+182.8 percent) disproportionately benefited from sharply rising gold, silver, and copper prices. Due to the high fixed cost share of mining companies, an increase in commodity prices leads to a disproportionately high increase in profits – an effect known as operating leverage.

3. Defense Stocks

Massive European rearmament programs led to a structural revaluation of defense companies. Particularly, the stocks of Rheinmetall (+159.8 percent), Renk (+187.2 percent), Leonardo (+90.8 percent), and Thales (+69.5 percent) rose significantly, aided by long-term filled order books and low dependence on economic cycles.

4. Banks

The stocks of European banks rose due to a steeper yield curve and significantly improved balance sheets. Société Générale (+161.6 percent) saw particularly strong gains in Europe. Deutsche Bank (+102.5 percent) also recorded strong price increases. Commerzbank rose by 137.9 percent after UniCredit increased its stake. UniCredit's CEO Andrea Orcel aims for a full takeover, while Commerzbank's CEO Bettina Orlopp emphasizes the independence of Commerzbank.

5. Sector Losers 2025

Consumer and retail stocks: Companies like Nike (-15.0 percent) were particularly affected by tariffs, a loss of purchasing power, and weak demand in China. Rising import costs and increasing price sensitivity among consumers are putting pressure on margins.

Chemicals & Basic Materials: Chemical companies like Celanese (-37.3 percent) in the US and Lanxess (-25.1 percent) in Germany are suffering from weak demand, overcapacity, and – particularly in Europe and Germany – high energy prices.

Crypto-related business models: Companies with investments in cryptocurrencies suffered from the depreciation of Bitcoin, which fell from a peak of over $120,000 per Bitcoin in June 2025 to $88,264 by year-end. The polarizing entrepreneur Michael Sailor is primarily responsible for the aggressive investments of the company Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, in Bitcoin. The value of Strategy's shares fell from a peak of over $450 in July 2025 to $155.6 by year-end due to declining Bitcoin prices and rising refinancing risks.

III. Focus: Asia

Investors achieved high profits in Asia in 2025.

The Nikkei 225 ended the year with a rise of 28.6 percent. However, the Japanese yen significantly depreciated to 184 yen per euro. The weak yen is inflationary. In response to increasing inflationary pressure, the Bank of Japan recently raised interest rates to 0.75 percent, which is interpreted as a gradual exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

South Korea particularly benefited in 2025 from the global investment wave in AI. The stock price of memory chip manufacturer SK hynix rose by about 278.8 percent to 652,000 KRW.

In China, technology, semiconductor, and AI stocks experienced a remarkable recovery. Tencent Holdings illustrated this recovery, rising by 44.5 percent and closing the year at 599 HKD.

In stark contrast, real estate developers continued to struggle. China Vanke fell by about 38.0 percent in Hong Kong trading, highlighting the ongoing stress in the Chinese real estate sector, which continues to be burdened by excessive debt and acute liquidity shortages. Tensions surrounding Taiwan are expected to remain a defining risk in 2026, as China's rhetoric has become significantly sharper in recent months.

2025 was a year in which structural trends and political decisions dominated the capital markets. The year 2026 will show whether the currently highly valued stock markets can continue their upward trend or whether concerns about a "AI bubble" will prove to be justified.